superthesis
/ everyone has an answer. few have a reason.

FIND THE
SIGNAL.

An AI that fact-checks any claim by arguing both sides and scoring the evidence — every verdict a calibrated 0–1 reading, every source cited.

/ every verdict traceable to its source — no black box
What it is

Thesis argues with itself. An Antithesis attacks your claim, a Thesis defends it, a Synthesis scores the evidence. The output isn't an opinion — it's a calibrated reading from 0 to 1, every source cited.

Use Thesis to test your theories, answer your questions, and draft your plans.

Built for analysts, researchers, and anyone who can't afford to be confidently wrong.
✓ No credit card✓ Calibrated confidence✓ Every claim sourced
“The S&P 500 will close above 7,000 in 2026.”
0.87
falsecontestedtrue
strong · well supported
View the full debate
/ ↓ don't take our word for it — run one yourself, no signup
/ try it · no signupinteractive · prepared examples
/ live instrument

Watch a verdict get built.

Pick a claim and watch Thesis argue both sides, then resolve a calibrated 0–1 signal — live, right here. Your own claims open after sign-up.

superthesis · live engine live
CLAIM ›
Try
0.00
SIGNAL
resolving…
0 · FALSECONTESTEDTRUE · 1.0
Thesis
Antithesis
Synthesis
prepared examples · live runs cite real sources
/ how it worksthe same engine, three moves
/ what just happened

Three moves, every verdict.

01 / decompose

Split the claim

Broken into the specific, checkable sub-claims it depends on.

02 / argue

Both sides, sourced

Antithesis attacks, Thesis defends — neither gets the last word.

03 / adjudicate

Score the evidence

Synthesis rules on quality alone, then opens the full audit trail.

/ one engine · three jobsthe same adversarial core
/ what it does

Point it at whatever you need settled.

Debate your claims

Test a belief

Give it something that can be true or false. Thesis splits it into checkable parts, argues each, and returns one calibrated 0–1 signal — reasoning, not opinion.

Answer your questions

Resolve a question

Ask anything open-ended. Thesis researches every side, weighs the competing evidence, and synthesizes it into one clear, sourced answer — the full debate, resolved.

Draft your plans

Build a plan

Name a goal. Thesis researches the path and lays out a time- and cost-optimized plan — the high-level arc down to concrete steps, with estimated hours and dollars.

/ crowd vs enginea price is not an argument

See the reasoning behind the price.

superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

0.12
Superthesis reading
0.69
Polymarket crowd
57 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

0.27
Superthesis reading
0.42
Polymarket crowd
15 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

0.71
Superthesis reading
0.81
Polymarket crowd
10 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

0.30
Superthesis reading
0.40
Polymarket crowd
10 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

0.06
Superthesis reading
0.12
Polymarket crowd
6 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Fed rate hike in 2026?

0.55
Superthesis reading
0.59
Polymarket crowd
4 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

0.57
Superthesis reading
0.53
Polymarket crowd
4 pts above the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

0.74
Superthesis reading
0.71
Polymarket crowd
3 pts above the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

0.19
Superthesis reading
0.21
Polymarket crowd
2 pts below the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
superthesis/ crowd vs engine

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

0.11
Superthesis reading
0.10
Polymarket crowd
2 pts above the crowd
falsecontestedtrue
superthesis.ai/marketsreasoned read · not financial advice
/ benchmarksmeasured in public
83.4%
Accuracy on the AVeriTeC dev set — vs. 71% prior published best (Apr 2026). Methodology →
70 = 70
Calibrated confidence: when Thesis says 0.70, it means 0.70 — expected calibration error just 0.03. Real uncertainty, not false precision. Reliability curve →
100%
Of verdicts open to the exact passage behind them — auditability, not just a citation count.
We don't pretend raw accuracy is our edge — debate trades a little of it for calibration and stability you can trust.
See the full benchmark →

The everyone-knows test

/ the everyone-knows testyour call · 0 / 0
/ did they really say it?
your call —
0 · refutedcontestedverified · 1.0
0.00attribution signal

/ why adversarial debate beats a single model

A single model answers. Three agents that debate are forced to show their work — the difference between solving for truth and solving for the appearance of it.

Built for those who can’t afford to be wrong.

Run your thesis free — no credit card, no limits. Everything's on us while The Field is in early access.