The biggest gaps between the prediction-market crowd and the Superthesis reasoning engine — each with the argument both ways. Our analytical read, not advice and not a claim to beat the market.
On 10 live markets, since our Jun 23, 2026 readings the crowd has moved toward our number on 5, away on 4, and held on 1. We publish the whole record — being early isn’t being right until a market resolves.
Each figure is the live Polymarket price vs. our calibrated reading, captured Jun 23, 2026. “Toward” on an open market means the crowd has since drifted our way — suggestive, not proof. Not financial advice, and not a claim to beat the market.