The crowd says 2026 stays quiet.
The record says otherwise.

H1 2026 is confirmed clean: Mayon's eruption is firmly VEI 1-2, and VOTW v5.3.6 lists 47 active eruptions with no VEI 4 designation. Conditional on a quiet H1, a Poisson model at the observed base rate yields roughly 47% probability that H2 also sees zero qualifying events — placing the full-year outcome within reach of the Poisson tail.

The GVP's own FAQ states VEI 4 frequency has been impressively constant for more than a century, and the 21st-century eruption record shows at least one confirmed VEI 4+ event in every year from 2000 through 2024 — a 25-year unbroken streak with no zero-count year to calibrate against. An unconditional Poisson model places the probability of a zero-count year at only ~22%, and the remaining six months of H2 are statistically consistent with base-rate expectations, not anomalous quiescence.

The claim that 2026 will record exactly zero confirmed VEI 4+ volcanic eruptions is almost certainly false. The decisive evidence is the uncontested 25-year empirical record (2000–2024) showing at least one confirmed VEI 4+ eruption start in every year, established by T1 GVP sources, with a base rate the GVP itself calls 'impressively constant for more than a century'; a Poisson model yields only ~22% probability of a zero year unconditionally, and no zero-count year exists in the modern complete record to calibrate against. While H1 2026 does appear clean of VEI 4 events — Mayon's effusive eruption is firmly characterized as VEI 1–2 by column height data — this is statistically consistent…